Sunday, May 1, 2011

Dude Report: Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!

Yelling Mayday three times as the title of this blog isn't to show my excitement for the calendar reading May 1st today. Rather it is to let out a distress signal in reference to the Minnesota Twins. My favorite baseball team is currently 9-18 (worst record in the majors) and they just got swept by the Kansas City Royals!?!?!?!?

The distress signal Mayday is derived from the French words venez m'aider, meaning 'come help me'. (I read all the way to the second sentence of Wikipedia's definition of Mayday to learn that.) Fellow Twins fans...I am here to help.

With my 5'9" frame, slow bat speed, and weak arm, unfortunately there isn't much I can do on the field. Rather, my attempt to help is by boosting the morale of us fans. Below I have laid out why despite the ugly start all will be right in Twins Territory by September.

  • Still Early: It sure has been painful watching the Twins lose 2 out of every 3 games. We are only 15% of the way into the season. 154 games is a lot left to be played.

  • Win Rate: I love the line "If the Twins just win the rest of the games this year they will be the best team in baseball" as much as anyone. Of course no team will win 154 in a row to finish the season. More realistically, if the Twins win 55% of their remaining games (roughly 85-69) they will finish with 94 wins. It is quite a jump to assume the team with the worst record in baseball can finish 16 games over 500 the rest of the way. The point is if they can just start playing some slightly over 500 ball they will work their way back into contention.

  • Weak division: Currently the Indians are leading the division with a 19-8 record. Despite being very jealous of their current record, they don't seem like a division champ to me. The White Sox, Royals, and Tigers don't scare me much either. In a weak Central division their is room for a 9-18 start.

  • Favorable September schedule: From the department of "Getting way too far ahead of myself"...during the final month of the season the Twins play the Royal 5 times, White Sox 3, Detroit 3, Cleveland 6, Seattle 3, and the LA Angels 3. Other then the Angels in LA these are all very winnable series. If they are in contention when the calendar turns to September they could realistically win 16 of their last 23.

  • Get healthy: Justin Morneau has missed 5 games, Mauer 16, Young 10, and Nishioka 20. Morneau is back, Young is close, Mauer is a mystery, and Nichioka is starting to plays some baseball in Florida. Getting Mauer back is a big question, but he will provide a large boost when he does return to the lineup.

  • Return to average: Cuddy is hitting 40 points below his career average. Morneau is 60 points below is career batting average and has 1 HR and 9 RBIs. Young is 60 points off his career average and has only 6 RBIs after driving in over 100 last year. These three and Mauer represent the heart of the order. If they simply return to their career averages the Twins will start scoring enough runs to win.

  • Keep doing what you are doing: Kubel, Span, Duensing, Baker, and for the most part Capps are proof that it isn't all bad for the Twins. If those 5 can keep playing at their current level it would be greatly appreciated. Kubel, I understand batting 354 for the rest of the year might be a bit too much to expect, so we can live with 325!?!?!

  • Give them time: I am not sure if I am reassuring myself or trying to convince myself, but I believe that if Thome, Pavano, and Blackburn are given more time they will figure things out. Thome needs to start putting the ball over the fence and Pavano and Blackburn need to start having consistent quality starts.

Winning and losing can both become habits. I hope the Twins quickly change their habits and give us some more to cheer about soon. I also hope that this post gives you a couple reasons for optimism. WIN TWINS!

My final prediction is that the Twins finish with 88 wins and another division title!

1 comment:

  1. Oh, Paul...I hope every prediction you made is absolutely correct! It's been a rough go for the first part of this season.