Thursday, November 18, 2010

DUDE REPORT: Fantasy Football review and predictions

On September 5th I posted some fantasy football predictions for the upcoming season. Now that we are 10 weeks into the season, I wanted to analyze my preseason predictions and apologize to anyone who followed them. The predictions were pretty bad.

As an attempt to make up for my numerous incorrect predictions I have listed some players to watch for the stretch run of the season. My league has three weeks left in its regular season and then three weeks of playoffs. It is definitely crunch time, but if your league is like mine there is a lot left to be determined. I hope some of these players can help you out.

To breakdown my preseason predictions I will assign a win or loss to each prediction.

Booms: players who I predicted would exceed expectations.
QB: Tony Romo: Loss. This is a tough loss because he was playing as a top 5 QB before his injury. Rumors are floating around that he may try to return this season. Stay tune.

RB: DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart: 2 BIG losses. The Carolina offense has been terrible. In the preseason I thought Matt Moore, would be good enough to keep defenses honest and allow Williams and Stewart to run. It is embarrassing to type that last sentence!??!?!

RB: Michael Turner: Loss. He was predicted to be a top seven running back. He has been good this year, but not top seven. I am optimistic based on Turners schedule that he could finish the season as a boom. To date it must go down as a loss.

WR: Greg Jennings: Loss. Jennings has been a top 20 WR this season due to a strong last four weeks. This prediction is a loss to date because he needs to push toward top 5 to be considered a boom.

WR: Hakeem Nicks: Win. Finally on the board with a win! Nicks started the season with a 3 TD game and has hardly looked back.

TE: Jason Witten: Win. I am going to mark this a win, but it is questionable. Witten had a 1000 yards receiving last year, but only 2 TDs. I listed him as a boom because I thought he would get into the end zone more this year. He only has three 3 TDs after 10 weeks, but has outscored Tony Gonzalez, Brent Celek, and the injured Dallas Clark and Jermicheal Finley.

K: Matt Prater: Loss. He is a kicker. This prediction was like throwing darts.

DEF: San Francisco: Loss. Like kickers this is kind of like throwing darts. With that said I threw a couple of duds at kicker and defense. 49ers have only one defensive TD and single digit interceptions.

BUSTS: players I predicted would underperform expectations.
QB: Eli Manning: Loss. Giants offense has been clicking all season. Eli has thrown 3 TDs in three games and 4 TDs once.

RB: Rashard Mendenhall: Loss. Mendenhall has been a top ten RB all season. Over the last month his carries have started to be limited. If he gets less than 20 carries in future games and fall out of the top 15 I could mark this bust a win.

RB: Ryan Grant: Win. Hurt in the season opener.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald: Win. Predicted to be a top five WR, but QB issues have him performing closer to the 20th best WR.

WR: Mike Sims-Walker: Win. Over 800 yards and 7 TDs last year had many people optimistic about him coming into this season. Mike has had two good games this year, but otherwise he has been a dud.

TE: Owen Daniels: Win. Daniels has been even slower than expected in his return from last season ACL injury. Predicted to be top 15, but has hardly been on the field.

K: Jay Feely: Win. Throwing darts, but Feely has been bad. ESPN preseason predicted Feely would be top ten.

DEF: Denver Broncos: Win. ESPN predicted they would be the 11th best defense, but with only one defensive TD and 5 interceptions they have underachieved.

Sleepers: late rounds picks no one was talking about
QB: Kevin Kolb, PHI: Loss. Lost starting job after a week one injury. He ranks as one of the highest scoring back up QBs if that counts for anything.

RB: Arian Foster, HOU: Win. Big win with Foster. He has been the top RB in fantasy football this season.

RB: Cadillac Williams, TB: Loss. Not sure what I was thinking here. Williams has lost his starting job to LeGarrette Blount.

WR: Jeremy Maclin, PHI: Win. Vick looks poised to have a historic finish to the fantasy season.

WR: Jacoby Jones, HOU: Loss. Potential does not earn any fantasy points.

TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN: Loss. I remain optimist this will be a win before the season is over.

K: Neil Rackers, HOU: Win. Again, throwing darts, but Rackers has been a top ten kicker behind the high powered Texans offense.

DEF: Cincinnati Bengals: Loss. Below average defense.

Booms: 2-7: That is embarrassing!
Busts: 6-2: I guess I know a bad player when I see one!?!?
Sleepers: 3-5
Total: 11-14

Stretch run predictions
• Donavan McNabb has looked pretty bad lately, but he will be a top twelve QB the remainder of the season.
• Josh Freeman will also be a top 12 QB going forward.
• Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick will be the two most common QBs to play in fantasy football super bowls.
• Felix Jones will finally reach his potential and be a top 20 RB.
• Knowshon Moreno is now health and will prove it by being a top 15 RB in the stretch run.
• Frank Gore will finish the season as the second highest scoring RB behind Arian Foster.
• Peyton Hillis will remain in the top 5 RBs the rest of the season.
• Mike Tolbert will finish the season with 12 TDs.
• Jamaal Charles will help many fantasy owners make the playoffs over the next three weeks.
• If Carolina plays an NFL QB at all this season Steve Smith has a good chance of having a fantasy impact before seasons end.
• Tampa Bay Mike Williams will have a strong finish to the season and end as a top 15 WR for the year.
• Marques Colston will play the rest of the season like the top 12 WR we predicted he would be before the season.
• If Todd Heap stays health (which is a big if) he will finish the season as a top 5 TE.

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